At Cogent, we meet countless successful professionals who have worked decades to build their wealth, only to discover that the hardest part isn’t earning it — it’s keeping it working for them and their legacy.
No one can predict what the next news cycle or market swing will bring. But we can say with confidence: in retirement, one of two things will happen — either your money will outlive you, or you’ll outlive your money. And only rarely do those two events coincide perfectly.
That’s why this isn’t just a conversation about stocks and bonds. It’s about something deeper: dignity, independence and opportunity throughout your life.
At Cogent, we’ve long encouraged clients to have thoughtful, proactive conversations with themselves and their partners about what opportunity means to them when they leave full-time work.
These conversations often center on far more than money; they’re about values, daily living, and maintaining control over one’s choices.
Independence doesn’t simply happen by accident — it’s designed through clarity, preparation, and collaboration. By aligning family expectations, estate structures, and sustainable income plans, we help ensure that both generations can live — and age — with confidence, dignity, and independence.
Your wealth at retirement isn’t something to be merely preserved — it must be nurtured and grown to provide a lifetime of spendable income, every day of every year. Because the cost of living will continue to rise — groceries, healthcare, housing, travel — your income must rise too if you hope to maintain your independence. Without that growth, you’ll slowly begin consuming your capital, risking the very freedom your wealth was built to secure.
Between 2020 and 2025, the U.S. Consumer Price Index rose about 25% — a 4.6% annualized inflation rate (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Over the same period, the S&P 500’s dividend income grew 55%, and with dividends reinvested, the index itself compounded roughly 154% (Dimensional Fund Advisors). The takeaway: while prices surged, ownership — in the form of equity — kept up and pulled ahead.
Those who funded their retirements with CDs or bonds, meanwhile, fell behind.
Not because they were reckless, but because they defined “risk” the wrong way.
Importantly, this view is no longer just philosophical or experiential — it is now being reinforced by rigorous academic research. A newly released study by finance professors Aizhan Anarkulova (Emory University), Scott Cederburg (University of Arizona), and Michael O’Doherty (University of Missouri) directly challenges the traditional advice to shift heavily into bonds as we age. (Anarkulova, A., Cederburg, S., & O’Doherty, M. (2025). Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice. Available via SSRN: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4590406)
Using more than 2,600 years combined of global market data across 39 developed countries, the researchers find that a 100% globally diversified equity portfolio — not a stock-bond mix — has historically done a better job of preserving purchasing power, supporting sustainable retirement income, and reducing the risk of running out of money over a lifetime.
What feels risky in the short run — stock market volatility — may actually be the very thing that protects purchasing power over a lifetime; the real risk is opting out.
Their conclusion is clear: for long-horizon investors, international equity diversification has been a more effective risk-management tool than bonds, particularly when risk is defined in real terms — the ability to maintain dignity, independence, and opportunity throughout retirement.
Rethinking Risk
If you were born around 1960, you’ve witnessed something extraordinary. The S&P 500 rose 115 times from 59.50 on January 4, 1965, to 6,854 as of December 9, 2025 (S&P Dow Jones Indices; Yahoo Finance). Its annual dividend grew 31-fold, while the U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 10.4 times (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).
Put differently: the great companies of America didn’t just survive inflation — they outran it.
Yet many investors in their sixties are moving their savings into money markets and short-term bonds, calling it “playing it safe.” They say, “Stocks are too risky.”
Are they?
History suggests the opposite. Over a lifetime, equities have been among the most reliable tools for protecting purchasing power. Bonds, CDs, and cash have rarely kept up. Past returns are not indicative of the future, we all know.
Yet why the disconnect? Because we tend to mistake volatility for risk. A temporary decline feels like danger, but the real risk — the one that erodes your future — is purchasing power loss.
The Roots of Cogent’s View on Risk
When Cogent’s founder Michael Evans began writing in 2010 — in the shadow of the Great Financial Crisis — he published a short essay titled “A New Twist on an Old Tale: How to Go Broke Safely.” Investors were still gun-shy in the shadow of the Great Financial Crisis, and “safety” had become a mantra.
Michael wrote then:
“So, yes, safe-harbor investing can be heroic. But it’s important to understand the price you’re paying in real terms, lest you lose wealth even as you seek to protect it. Your strongest defense is to build a solid investment plan based on your particular goals and structure. By balancing the right amounts of risk and reward and holding true to your plan, you stand the best chance for achieving your own storybook ending in the face of adversity.”
Before founding Cogent, Michael spent years as a professional trader, living daily with market volatility. That experience shaped his understanding that risk isn’t something to avoid — it’s something to measure, price, and manage in pursuit of durable wealth.
Evidence and Perspective
As Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel, author of Stocks for the Long Run, has demonstrated across more than two centuries of data, “in the long run, stocks are less risky than bonds when risk is defined as the probability of preserving purchasing power.”¹ What looks volatile day to day has, over time, been one of the most reliable protectors of real wealth. This perspective reframes risk not as short-term market movement, but as the danger of losing the ability to fund your dignity, independence and opportunity over decades.
Who’s the Real Conservative Investor?
Imagine entering retirement with $5 million invested — and 30 years later, still having that $5 million.
You might feel “safe,” but at 3% inflation, your purchasing power has dropped nearly 60%.
In contrast, those who owned a diversified portfolio of equities participated in the growth of real businesses that raised prices, paid dividends, and compounded value.
When someone transitions away from full time work, they can expect at least a 30-year window of providing an income to themselves, some even more.
30-years ago at the end of 1995, the S&P 500 stood at 615.93; by October 2025, it reached 6,854, an 11 times increase (S&P Dow Jones Indices; Yahoo Finance). Over that same period, a 30-year Treasury bond yielded 6% — yet the cost of living merely doubled.
Even after decades of interest payments, bondholders lost ground in real terms, while equity owners multiplied theirs.
Today, the 10-year Treasury yields about 4.17% (YCharts, December 9, 2025). After 3% inflation and 30% taxes, that’s a real return near zero. And yet, many still view Treasuries as “the safest investment in the world.”
Safe from what — volatility? Or from running out of purchasing power?
Live Life on Your Terms
At Cogent, we help clients define risk not as the movement of markets, but as the possibility of losing the life they’ve worked so hard to create.
True risk is waking up one day and realizing your dollars buy half of what they used to.
True safety comes from aligning your wealth with the growth of the world’s productive companies — from designing, building, and protecting a portfolio that helps your income grow as your life does.
Because the goal isn’t to avoid turbulence. It’s to reach your destination with dignity, independence and opportunity. We’d add in keeping your lasting freedom intact.
That’s how you avoid going broke safely.
Disclosures: Cogent Strategic Wealth is a registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration of an investment advisor does not imply any level of skill or training. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered legal, financial, or credit advice. Please consult your own professionals regarding your specific circumstances. All investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal.
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