Navigating Market Volatility: Your Cogent Strategic Wealth Update

Chaos in the midst of chaos isn’t funny, but chaos in the midst of order is. – Steve Martin

We find ourselves today in a moment of perfect uncertainty—a time when markets are wobbling, yet recuperating, and headlines are dire, and the temptation to act on emotion is at its peak.

The flurry of the Trump administration’s policy actions has impacted rates, credit, trade, and rattled markets. President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff plan announced April 2^nd along with the additions and reversals since have added a new dose of uncertainty into the investment environment.

Times like these are precisely when investors are most likely to make what we call The Big Mistake—abandoning a long-term strategy in reaction to short-term noise.

Yes, noise, not a signal.

We want to be clear: you are not alone in feeling unsettled. But we also want to be equally clear—this is not the time to flinch.

Let’s review the facts—not the fear:

• Yes, the S&P 500 was down at the bottom of this fast and ferocious downturn approximately 18.7% from highs of Feb 19, 2025.

• But it also rose more than 224% over the past ten years.

• Volatility isn’t unusual. It’s actually quite normal.

• The average intra-year market decline since 1980 is about 15% in the U.S. equity market.

• And a drop of 30% or more? That’s happened roughly every 4–5 years.

In fact, almost exactly five years ago, we faced something far more terrifying than a market correction: a global health crisis that upended every facet of life. The news was darker, the uncertainty deeper, and the fear more widespread. 

Investors who stayed disciplined—who tuned out the panic and stayed the course—emerged stronger, with portfolios that ultimately grew handsomely from the recovery that followed.

We want to take a moment to connect with you regarding the recent fluctuations in the market and how they intersect with your personalized Life on Your Terms Financial Plans.

Our theme again: It’s not the time to flinch. 

The financial media operates in a cycle of constant information flow, often overwhelming us with the latest crisis du jour, prompting reactive behaviors, and swiftly moving on to the next big headline. 

This relentless torrent is designed to capture attention and provoke immediate action, playing on the natural anxieties that accompany market fluctuations and economic uncertainties. 

At Cogent Strategic Wealth, we understand the importance of discerning between noise and substantive advice. 

We encourage you not to bite into the sensationalism. 

Instead, we advocate for a disciplined approach to investment, focusing on long-term objectives and strategies that are resilient to the ebbs and flows of news cycles. This steady approach helps safeguard against impulsive decisions and aligns with our commitment to navigating your financial journey with foresight and stability.

Firstly, it’s essential to acknowledge that while the markets have indeed been turbulent, with recent drops and rises influenced by new tariffs and global economic uncertainties, these changes are part of a broader economic landscape that has always been prone to cycles of ebb and flow. 

Yet when it is front and center in the media and mentioned continually in every social media app we have right there on our phones, it can be difficult to sperate the signal from the noise. 

The start of 2025 has reminded us of the importance of maintaining a perspective that is both vigilant and forward-looking.

The S&P 500 and other major indices have experienced shifts that might seem disconcerting. Dimensional Fund Advisors’ recent quarterly review highlights a downturn after initial gains this year, attributed to multiple factors including competition in AI technology sectors from China, shifts in global markets from US to other developed markets, and the introduction of new tariffs by the U.S. administration. 

The very recent volatility since the administration’s next wave of tariffs are playing out in real time as I write this. Despite these challenges, history has shown us that robust, diversified portfolios can weather such storms.

Our strategy remains steadfast in such times. Based on our foundational belief in evidence-based investment principles, we have designed financial plans for hundreds of clients and built evidence-driven portfolios to fund their most cherished goals through just this volatility. They are built to be resilient, capable of navigating the ups and downs of market cycles. This approach is not about reacting hastily to market movements but rather about staying the course, aligned with your long-term financial goals.

If you do not have a Life on Your Terms Financial Plan and your portfolios are not built be using peer-reviewed, academic research and data, shouldn’t they be? 

Empathy and Commitment

We understand that seeing portfolio values fluctuate can be unsettling. Please remember that these movements are part of the natural cycle of investments and reflect broader economic trends rather than direct impacts on your individual investments’ fundamentals.

Geopolitical sell-offs are typically short-lived

This insightful graph from Vanguard illustrates a crucial point about market resilience in the face of geopolitical events. Historically, while geopolitical sell-offs can initially unsettle the markets—as seen with events like the Cuban Missile Crisis or the Brexit vote—the markets have tended to recover relatively quickly. The graph shows that, on average, markets have rebounded to achieve a 5% total return six months post-event and an 8% return after one year. This trend underscores the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective in investment strategies, as short-lived market shocks caused by geopolitical tensions typically do not impact the sustained growth trajectory of well-diversified portfolios.

Our Path Forward

Our focus continues to be on ensuring your portfolio is well-positioned to support your aspirations and financial goals over the long term. This means we may make strategic adjustments to enhance portfolio resilience or take advantage of opportunities, but always with your personal roadmap at the forefront of our decision-making.

Don’t let turbulence distract you: Keep your focus on the longer term

Despite significant fluctuations and periods of high volatility, such as those seen around the 2008 financial crisis and other global events, the overall trajectory of the index has been upward. This demonstrates the resilience of global markets over the long term. This chart from Vanguard depicting the MSCI World Price Index alongside its 30-day average intraday volatility from 1982 through 2023 vividly illustrates the dynamic nature of global markets and the inherent volatility that investors may face. 

For investors, this graph underscores the importance of maintaining a steady course and adhering to a well-thought-out investment strategy, as markets have historically rewarded those who can endure periods of uncertainty and volatility with patience. 

No matter how hard this can be. 

We Are One of You

At Cogent Strategic Wealth, we truly believe in the principle of “we’re all in this together.” 

As your partners in navigating the financial landscape, we want you to know that we sit alongside our clients, sharing in the same investment strategies we recommend. 

Our own Life on Your Terms Financial Plans are fueled by the same evidence-driven investment portfolios that our clients trust with their assets. 

Like our client’s, our portfolios also experience fluctuations—sometimes quite uncomfortably so. This shared experience strengthens our commitment to these strategies, as we navigate these ups and downs right beside you, enduring the same market volatilities and working towards the same long-term prosperity. 

Together, we stand firm in our financial journey, guided by a deep understanding and belief in the resilience of our chosen paths.

Is it always easy for us? 

Of course not. We too are human. We too have to be resilient in the face of chaos. 

But we truly believe in what we do for ourselves and for our clients. Our Design | Build | Protect Strategic Approach reinforces our own commitment to attain what we want to accomplish. 

We Are Here for You

As always, we encourage you to reach out with any questions or concerns about your situation, the financial plan which guides you, the portfolio which funds your long-term plans, or the broader market environment in general. 

Whether you wish to discuss our current strategy or need reassurance during these fluctuating times, begin a conversation with our Cogent Team. We are here to support you.

Looking Ahead

Despite the current market volatility, our commitment to our client’s and our own financial wellbeing remains unshakeable. 

We continue to monitor the economic landscape, adapting strategies as necessary to safeguard the progress towards your defined financial goals.

To our Cogent Family, we thank you for your continued trust in Cogent Strategic Wealth. 

Together, we will continue to navigate these challenging times, keeping your lifetime financial goals in clear view.

To those not yet a Cogent Client, why not? 

Fully invested in your success, 

For informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, accounting, legal or tax advice. Cogent Strategic Wealth provides investment advice only through individualized interactions. Certain information is based upon third-party data, which may become outdated or otherwise superseded without notice. Third-party information is deemed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio nor do indices represent results of actual trading. Information from sources deemed reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Performance is historical and does not guarantee future results. Neither the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) nor any other federal or state agency have approved, determined the accuracy, or confirmed the adequacy of this article